After Malthusianism

In February 2008, a documentary movie titled Demographic Winter: The Decline of nan Human Family premiered astatine nan Heritage Foundation. Featuring economists and scholars specified arsenic Nicholas Eberstadt, Alan Viard, and Kay Hymowitz, a banner declared that nan film’s taxable matter—the world dearth successful children being born—represented “the azygous astir powerful unit directing nan destiny and early of society.” 

At nan onset of nan Great Recession, nan taxable of debased fertility rates attracted small liking from journalists, policymakers, aliases nan nationalist astatine large. A scathing reappraisal of nan documentary successful Harvard Divinity Bulletin lambasted an “insidious undercurrent” that ostensibly dog-whistled a nefarious schedule of nan belief right. 

But 17 years later, Demographic Winter proved to beryllium remarkably up of its time. As two-thirds of group now unrecorded successful countries pinch sub-replacement fertility rates and economies acquisition “Japanification,” pinch much retirees than workers, nan babe bust is nary longer considered a partisan aliases marginal issue. 

Headlines astir nan challenges of aging and shrinking populations now abound crossed nan mainstream media, and a bid of acclaimed books by decidedly non-conservative authors precocious deed shelves, including Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson’s Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline (2019) and Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan’s The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival (2020). 

The latest specified book, After nan Spike: Population, Progress, and nan Case for People (2025), co-authored by economists Dean Spears and Michael Geruso, repudiates nan longstanding story that nan world is overpopulated, which still lingers successful celebrated civilization and nationalist opinion. In a straightforward and cogent manner, Spears and Geruso show that group are a nett good—for innovation, for rising surviving standards, and yes, moreover for nan planet. 

But pinch fertility rates connected nan wane globally, After nan Spike also presents a broad study of nan causes and consequences of depopulation and a compelling telephone to action. Even Princeton professor emeritus Peter Singer, who has agelong pushed nan overpopulation argument, endorsed nan book and said it challenged and changed his reasoning astir population. 

Echoing nan economical penetration of Julian Simon, nan co-authors statement that “a bully thought does not get utilized up.” The world is not a fixed pie, and organization maturation contributes to an summation successful “non-rival innovation,” which benefits everyone done greater technological progress. One person’s bully thought “gets copied and reapplied, endlessly.” The results of nan celebrated wager betwixt Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich person demonstrated that we aren’t going to tally retired of resources and starve to decease successful a Malthusian catastrophe. As Simon correctly predicted successful his 1981 book The Ultimate Resource, a rising number of “skilled, spirited, and hopeful” group results successful much ingenuity, abundance, and little prices complete time.

In nan years 1990–2019, world nutrient accumulation surged by 61 percent arsenic nan world organization accrued by 45 percent. In that aforesaid period, world utmost poorness fell from complete one-third to little than 10 percent, and nan prices of commodities became overmuch cheaper, arsenic Simon anticipated. Apart from wars aliases authorities mismanagement, famines person virtually disappeared. 

Despite these immense improvements successful worldly well-being, galore are still gravely worried astir ambiance alteration and nan effect of 8.2 cardinal group connected nan earth’s ecosystems. Spears and Geruso return nan threat of world warming seriously, but they besides showcase really depopulation is not a way to decarbonization. Nor is location a theoretical aliases humanities narration betwixt organization size and particulate aerial pollution. Whether nan organization stabilizes aliases declines, nan world somesthesia is still forecast to rise. “Billions of lives lived would make a mini quality to this large problem,” they said. 

The solution, then, requires much brains, not fewer. Our “strength is successful our numbers, not conscionable our uncommon luminaries.” Low fertility rates intends less imaginative and technological geniuses will beryllium calved to meet nan immense challenges of nan twenty-first century. As nan co-authors warn, “There is nary cleanable power future, nary reply to c emissions, without technological progress.”

Since nan Industrial Revolution, humans person created a freer, healthier, and much prosperous world wherever much group tin unrecorded good, happy lives. Yet these improvements person ironically led to a authorities of affairs successful which group want to bring less children into an objectively amended world. 

Why? Most insightfully, Spears and Geruso supply a thorough rebuttal to nan declare that group are having less children because of a deficiency of affordability, highlighting nan domiciled of opportunity costs successful shaping fertility decisions, astatine slightest successful rich | countries. Fertility penchant surveys, which inquire respondents their “ideal fertility,” whitethorn find that group mention financial limitations arsenic a main logic they’re having less children, but these surveys don’t uncover nan fuller picture. They don’t inquire group what they’re consenting to springiness up to execute their “ideal fertility.”

“Once we understand ‘too expensive’ to beryllium astir opportunity costs (rather than only money cost), we tin spot that location are ways that children person go much costly, if not precisely little affordable,” Spears and Geruso said. “Parenting a child, aliases different child, could mean scaling backmost acquisition goals, profession plans, aliases different ambitions.” One study, cited successful nan book, shows nary relationship successful nan United States betwixt cost-of-living increases and reduced child-bearing since nan Great Recession. Fertility rates dwindled successful each state, yet they did not autumn faster aliases much importantly successful states wherever prices went up nan most, arsenic nan affordability presumption would claim. 

Spears and Geruso admit that they don’t person an reply to nan eventual mobility that now puzzles demographers and economists: Why is fertility declining everywhere, successful rich | and mediocre countries alike? 

Contrary to nan Demographic Transition Model, which posits that child-bearing plummets pinch rising affluence and women’s empowerment, nan co-authors constituent retired that location are exceptions to each mentation of declining fertility. For example, India is simply a sub-replacement society, yet Indian women wed young and bask less freedoms than their Western counterparts. Sub-replacement fertility is besides occurring successful Myanmar, Nepal, and Bangladesh, which are designated by nan United Nations arsenic least developed countries (LDCs). 

Government involution via pro-natal policies aliases moreover free in-vitro fertilization (IVF) won’t meaningfully alteration these fertility patterns since group will only person arsenic galore children arsenic they desire. And nan reality of nan twenty-first period is that group worldwide want less children. A 2025 United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)/YouGov survey recovered that nan astir communal number of children group astir nan world want is two. 

The economics occupation has not yet provided a definitive mentation arsenic to why group almost everyplace desire, and are having, less children. As Nicholas Eberstadt said, “The brilliant who yet answers that mobility will merit a Nobel, but I deliberation it’ll beryllium a Nobel successful lit and not successful economics. He aliases she will person to transmission nan world zeitgeist, floor plan nan shifting coastlines of nan modern mentality, and research nan secrets hidden successful billions of quality hearts.”

Overpopulation anxieties are still wide globally, pinch astir half of Americans believing that nan world’s organization is excessively high, according to a 2022 YouGov poll. But if Spears and Geruso were capable to alteration Peter Singer’s mind, possibly they tin execute nan aforesaid effect among a overmuch wider audience. 

After nan Spike doesn’t person a solution to nan coming world depopulation, nor does it declare to. It is simply a telephone for decision-makers and nan nationalist to statesman preparing for a early pinch less humans, which is inevitably and steadfastly approaching. For up-and-coming scholars, journalists, and policymakers successful Gen Z, this book outlines nan dilemmas and discussions that will go progressively pressing arsenic they presume activity roles successful society. It is truthful an basal publication for nan younger demographic, which whitethorn inherit and turn aged successful a world “after nan spike.”