Aier’s Everyday Price Index Inches Up Again In Sept 2025

The AIER Everyday Price Index (EPI) roseate 0.29 percent to 297.6 successful September 2025, marking its tenth consecutive monthly summation and bringing nan year-to-date alteration to astir 3.2 percent. Out of nan 24 components, 15 categories posted value increases, 1 was unchanged, and 8 declined. The strongest gains came from farming and lawncare services, centrifugal fuel, and intracity transportation, reflecting some seasonal and energy-related pressures. Offsetting those, nan astir notable value declines occurred successful nonprescription drugs, admissions to movies, theaters, and concerts, and lodging fuels and utilities, indicating humble alleviation successful prime user essentials.

AIER Everyday Price Index vs. US Consumer Price Index (NSA, 1987 = 100)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Also connected October 24, 2025, nan US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its September 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The month-to-month header CPI roseate 0.3 percent while nan halfway month-to-month CPI number accrued by 0.2 percent, some of which were little than forecasts by 0.1 percent.

September 2025 US CPI header and halfway month-over-month (2015 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

In September 2025, nan nutrient scale roseate 0.2 percent pursuing a 0.5 percent summation successful August, pinch nutrient astatine location prices climbing 0.3 percent arsenic 4 of six awesome market categories posted gains, including different nutrient astatine location (0.5 percent), cereals and bakery products (0.7 percent), nonalcoholic beverages (0.7 percent), and meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (0.3 percent), while dairy products declined 0.5 percent and fruits and vegetables remained unchanged, and nutrient distant from location accrued a humble 0.1 percent. Energy costs surged 1.5 percent successful September, accelerating from August’s 0.7 percent rise, driven chiefly by gasoline prices that jumped 4.1 percent, while energy fell 0.5 percent and earthy state dropped 1.2 percent. 

Core inflation, excluding nutrient and energy, moderated to 0.2 percent successful September from 0.3 percent successful each of nan erstwhile 2 months, pinch shelter costs rising 0.2 percent arsenic owners’ balanced rent posted its smallest monthly summation (0.1 percent) since January 2021. 

Also successful nan halfway numbers, proscription costs were mixed, pinch hose fares expanding 2.7 percent and caller vehicles rising 0.2 percent arsenic centrifugal conveyance security and utilized cars and trucks some declined 0.4 percent. Other notable changes included recreation and family furnishings each rising 0.4 percent, apparel gaining 0.7 percent, individual attraction up 0.4 percent, and connection falling 0.2 percent. Medical attraction costs accrued 0.2 percent overall, pinch infirmary services and medicine narcotics each rising 0.3 percent, offsetting declines successful dental services (down 0.6 percent), and physicians’ services (down 0.1 percent).

Tracking changes complete nan erstwhile 12 months, some nan header and halfway Consumer Price Indices roseate 3.1 percent, somewhat higher than nan 3.0 percent emergence that was projected for both.

September 2025 US CPI header and halfway year-over-year (2015 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Over nan 12 months ending successful September, wide nutrient prices accrued 2.7 percent, pinch market prices holding dependable from August while dining-out costs accelerated to a 3.7 percent yearly pace. Within nutrient categories, meats, poultry, fish, and eggs climbed 5.2 percent, and nonalcoholic beverages roseate 5.3 percent, while “other nutrient astatine home” precocious 1.9 percent and cereals and bakery equipment were up 1.6 percent. Energy prices roseate 2.8 percent complete nan year, led by steep gains successful energy (5.1 percent) and earthy state (11.7 percent), though gasoline edged 0.5 percent lower. Full-service edifice meals roseate 4.2 percent compared pinch 3.2 percent for limited-service meals, while fruits and vegetables gained 1.3 percent and dairy prices were up a humble 0.7 percent.

Core CPI, which excludes nutrient and energy, accrued 3.0 percent year-over-year, driven chiefly by shelter costs, which precocious 3.6 percent. Other notable contributors included family furnishings and operations (4.1 percent), utilized cars and trucks (5.1 percent), aesculapian attraction (3.3 percent), and recreation (3.0 percent). These figures item that while equipment ostentation has moderated, services and lodging stay nan cardinal sources of upward value unit wrong nan halfway index.

The September 2025’s Consumer Price Index study delivered news of a invited moderation successful inflation, marking nan slowest gait of underlying value maturation successful 3 months. Core CPI was restrained by a cooling successful shelter costs — nan smallest summation successful owners’ balanced rent since early 2021. Broader value movements were likewise tame: equipment ostentation eased connected cheaper utilized cars and slower gains successful family furnishings, while services ostentation was capped by softening rents and airfare costs. Of note, nan information merchandise was delayed by nan ongoing national shutdown and assembled chiefly to guarantee nan Social Security Administration could cipher its 2.8 percent cost-of-living accommodation for adjacent year.

For policymakers astatine nan Federal Reserve, nan study reinforces assurance that value pressures are continuing to cool without threatening broader economical stability. The slower gait of inflation, peculiarly crossed shelter and halfway services, efficaciously seals nan lawsuit for a 25-basis-point complaint trim astatine nan late-October Federal Open Market Committee gathering and strengthens nan likelihood of different successful December. The contiguous financial marketplace guidance reflected that view: Treasury yields, and nan dollar slipped, while banal futures advanced. Despite persistent tariff vulnerability — peculiarly successful categories for illustration apparel and family equipment — nan wide pass-through to consumers remains modest. Estimates propose firms passed done astir 26 cents of each dollar successful caller tariff costs, underscoring really competitory pressures and slowing request are muting inflation’s reach.

Still, nan information overgarment a nuanced image beneath nan header calm. Measures of ostentation breadth show that while less items posted outsized increases, astir half of halfway CPI components proceed to emergence astatine an annualized complaint supra 4 percent, signaling lingering while narrowing stickiness. The superior interest now is not truthful overmuch inflation’s guidance but information continuity: pinch nan authorities still shuttered, nan Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended astir information collection, casting uncertainty connected nan merchandise and accuracy of upcoming CPI reports. For nan moment, though, September’s figures connection reassurance that ostentation is connected a slower glide way — capable to warrant nan Fed’s easing bias but not yet soft capable to norm retired renewed vigilance if tariff aliases proviso shocks reemerge complete nan adjacent respective months.