Are We Sure Kevin O'connell Deserves The 'offensive Guru' Label?

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Kevin O'Connell arrived successful Minnesota successful February 2022, caller disconnected a Super Bowl triumph pinch nan Rams, pinch a estimation arsenic a Sean McVay-trained violative guru. A savant, a whiz connected that broadside of nan ball. Those aren't labels he ever gave himself, by immoderate means, but that was nan perception, and that remains nan cognition 4 years later. The generally-held belief is still that nan Vikings person a mastermind starring their offense.

Are we judge he deserves those (very unofficial) labels? Four years is simply a beautiful large sample size, and though nan Vikings person won plentifulness of regular play games during O'Connell's tenure, their wide violative metrics are highly underwhelming. Just look astatine wherever they've classed successful 2 salient all-encompassing metrics complete nan past 4 years (hat extremity to Nick Olson, who pointed this out).

2022: 18th successful EPA* per play, 20th successful DVOA*
2023: 18th successful EPA per play, 23rd successful DVOA
2024: 14th successful EPA per play, 15th successful DVOA
2025: 28th successful EPA per play, 29th successful DVOA

*Expected Points Added
*Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average

Only erstwhile successful 4 years person nan Vikings had an above-average offense, according to those 2 useful ratio metrics. And moreover then, it was hardly successful nan apical half. They've ne'er cracked nan apical 13 successful either statistic, and nan 2025 squad — which had different awesome defense nether Brian Flores — was doomed by having 1 of nan worst offenses successful nan NFL.

Kevin O'Connell | Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

If you're funny astir who (arguably) deserves much in installments for nan Vikings' success, present are their ranks connected defense during nan O'Connell era.

2022: 16th successful EPA per play, 25th successful DVOA (Ed Donatell was DC)
2023: 17th successful EPA per play, 11th successful DVOA (Flores takes over)
2024: 2nd successful EPA per play, 2nd successful DVOA
2025: 3rd successful EPA per play, 3rd successful DVOA

Now, to beryllium adjacent to O'Connell, nan violative numbers request a small spot of discourse and unpacking. The Vikings person started 8 different quarterbacks successful his tenure: Kirk Cousins, Jaren Hall, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens, Sam Darnold, J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer. They've ne'er had a top-tier QB starring nan way, pinch nan closest point being 2023 Cousins pre-Achilles and 2024 Darnold (outside of a fewer atrocious games). Injuries person been unfortunate astatine times.

A awesome rumor is that O'Connell's Vikings person ne'er figured retired really to build an businesslike moving game. In 2022, they were 10th successful EPA per dropback and 29th successful EPA per rush. In 2023, they were 18th (11th earlier Cousins sewage hurt) and 22nd. In 2024, they were 12th successful EPA per dropback and 25th successful EPA per rush. This past year, they were 26th and 30th. They've been bully (not elite) successful nan walk crippled erstwhile they've gotten tin backmost play, but not erstwhile successful nan past 4 years person nan Vikings classed higher than 22nd successful EPA per rush, which reflects beautiful poorly connected O'Connell.

Four years in, location are intelligibly a batch of things O'Connell does good arsenic a caput coach. He's a awesome leader, motivator, and civilization setter. He tin build an explosive passing onslaught erstwhile he has nan backmost to match. He mostly makes bully decisions successful adjacent games. But nan wide numbers simply don't support nan thought that KOC is immoderate unthinkable "offensive guru." If nan Vikings are going to bounce backmost successful 2026, they'll request a batch much from him and his unit connected that broadside of nan shot — particularly if Flores winds up elsewhere this offseason.