Dodgers Sign Kyle Tucker, But Padres Still Hold The Outfield Advantage In 2026

The Los Angeles Dodgers person signed different superstar free supplier - this clip near fielder Kyle Tucker - to a whopping four-year, $240 cardinal contract. The news is particularly demoralizing for nan Padres, who will look L.A. 19 times successful 2026.

While he didn’t person a ascendant twelvemonth for nan Chicago Cubs successful 2025, Tucker still maintained his estimation arsenic 1 of baseball’s premier bats. He posted:

• 22 location runs
• 25 stolen bases
• .363 wOBA
• 136 wRC+

Although nan move cements nan Dodgers arsenic an objectively superior discourtesy to San Diego, it doesn’t firmly springiness them a head-to-head advantage erstwhile comparing outfields.

Along pinch Tucker successful correct field, head Dave Roberts is expected to rotation retired Andy Pages successful halfway section and Teoscar Hernández successful near field. It’s a premier group, but it doesn’t rather lucifer nan firepower of San Diego’s trio.

Led by superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., nan Padres outfield projects to beryllium a awesome tally producer. Alongside Tatis are 2024 All-Star Jackson Merrill and waste and acquisition deadline acquisition Ramón Laureano.

Each group features a operation of lefties and righties, veterans and youth, and sheer prima power. It’s going to beryllium a blast to watch these teams spell caput to caput each season. Heading into 2026, however, nan Padres still clasp nan separator successful outfield talent.

With an estimated mixed ZiPS WAR of 11.5 for 2026, nan Padres’ group should importantly outperform nan Dodgers (8.1 projected ZiPS WAR), moreover aft nan summation of Tucker.

The stars - Tatis and Tucker - are some projected to support their production, but Tatis’ defense will almost ever springiness him nan separator successful wide value.

In 2026, Tatis will look to build connected a +5.1 protect standing (via FanGraphs), while Tucker has ne'er posted a afloat play of affirmative protect value.

For nan supporting casts, nan cardinal quality lies successful halfway field. Merrill, who still produced a coagulated 3.0 WAR successful 2025, is projected to summation that full to 4.4 successful 2026 pinch improved health. Pages, connected nan different hand, benefited from a .308 BABIP past play that doesn’t align pinch his Statcast metrics.

It’s astir intolerable for a subordinate to prolong a .300-plus BABIP erstwhile their tube complaint (45%) and hard-hit complaint (24%) autumn beneath 50%. Somehow, Pages managed it, but it’s doubtful he comes adjacent to that aforesaid accumulation again.

The last comparison - nan veterans - is nan astir absorbing and unpredictable. Hernández, a certified powerfulness hitter, posted 1 of nan worst seasons of his profession successful 2025. Laureano, meanwhile, enjoyed a breakout campaign.

With Hernández signaling his first sub-1.0 WAR play since 2019 and Laureano posting his first 3.0-plus WAR play since that aforesaid year, some players are projected to settee into nan 1.5–2.5 range. The comparison is excessively adjacent to springiness either a assured edge, but it’s improbable Hernández’s accumulation makes up for nan advantage Tatis and Merrill clasp complete their counterparts.

Like Pages, Laureano benefited from a precocious BABIP successful 2025, but his underlying metrics supported it. He jumped to nan 85th percentile successful tube complaint and nan 84th percentile successful hard-hit rate. Scouting adjustments whitethorn little those numbers, but this wasn’t simply luck.

Hernández deed nan shot reasonably good successful 2025 (72nd percentile tube rate, 65th percentile hard-hit rate), but astatine property 33, it’s improbable those numbers increase. After 5 consecutive seasons pinch a .335-plus BABIP from 2020–24, it appears that agelong whitethorn beryllium coming to a imperishable end.

Ultimately, this conflict of elite outfields will beryllium decided by existent production, not projections. With talent connected some sides and nan Padres searching for each imaginable separator against nan big-spending Dodgers, winning this head-to-head matchup will beryllium important if they dream to enactment competitory successful a sadistic National League West.