Forde-yard Dash: The Myth Of Making The College Football Playoff Every Season

Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news successful assemblage football, wherever connected nan aforesaid play an NFL kicker tin make a 68-yard section extremity and a Michigan State kicker tin miss from 23 yards successful a crippled nan Spartans mislaid by 3 successful overtime. First Quarter: Slouching Tigers, Shrinking Canes. Second Quarter: The Rapidly Disappearing Hiring Class of 2023.

Of each nan chaotic statements that came retired of nan authorities of Louisiana past week before, during and aft nan firing of LSU shot coach Brian Kelly and diversion head Scott Woodward, nan astir alarming wasn’t from strongman Gov. Jeff Landry (22).

It was from interim diversion head Verge Ausberry (23), who declared, “LSU has to beryllium successful nan playoffs each twelvemonth successful football.”

Not immoderate years. Not astir years. Every year. If that’s simply grandiose talk that fans want to hear, fine. If that’s an aspiration, well, it’s bully to person lofty goals. If that’s a information of employment, past Gov. Loudmouth is hardly nan biggest disincentive for talented coaches to see nan Tigers job.

Nobody is going to nan playoff each year.

Here are nan mathematics facts successful nan existent 12-team playoff system: LSU is 1 of 16 SEC programs trying to triumph an automatic bid. Should nan Tigers not gain that entry, they go 1 of 64 teams fighting to onshore 7 at-large bids. (In theory, each eligible FBS teams are competing for at-large CFP spots. But successful reality, those bids are going to spell to power-conference teams and Notre Dame.)

So successful a vacuum, each SEC squad has a 6.3% chance of winning an automatic bid and, failing that, a 10.9% chance of an at-large bid. It’s reliable to reconcile those percentages pinch a belief that CFP inclusion should beryllium an yearly reality.

(This is besides why an description to 16 playoff teams by 2027 astatine nan latest seems likely. Not conscionable much money, but much programs that tin opportunity they delivered connected precocious expectations. Instead of getting better, make it easier. Same mindset for nan inevitable description of nan NCAA hoops tournaments.)

Even astatine places for illustration LSU—which has galore inherent advantages—and moreover successful a 12-to-16-team era, going to nan playoff each twelvemonth is not a reasonable demand. 

Alabama (24), pinch nan top coach successful history, has been to 8 retired of 11 playoffs and missed nan first 12-teamer. The Crimson Tide, Clemson (25) and Ohio State (26) are nan only different programs that person been to much than half of those 11, pinch nan Tigers making 7 and nan Buckeyes six. Twenty-one different programs person filled nan 52 spots successful nan playoff era.

The modern realities further tilt nan section toward parity and distant from hegemony. This is simply a flatter athletics now, pinch much mobility up and down nan hierarchy. Clemson, pinch nan aforesaid caput coach who took nan Tigers to each 7 of those playoff appearances, is presently tied for 12th successful nan ACC. Meanwhile, look who is successful first successful each of nan powerfulness conferences.

Virginia (27) leads nan ACC. The Cavaliers haven’t had a winning play since 2019, person ne'er sniffed nan playoff and haven’t been successful nan nationalist title speech successful November since a flicker of excitement successful 1990. (It passed quickly.)

BYU (28) leads nan Big 12. The Cougars person been a successful programme for astir of nan past 60 years, and they astir apt deserved much playoff information than they sewage past season. But they still are 0-for-the-CFP, and their only nationalist title came successful 1984 (with nary mini magnitude of backlash). 

BYU has been a successful programme historically but has yet to break done to nan College Football Playoff. / Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Indiana (29) leads nan Big Ten by a half-game complete Ohio State, continuing its emergence from nan dead. Prior to past season, location was nary request to moreover scour nan grounds books for thing resembling nationalist title contention. The 1967 squad was 8–0 and classed No. 5 successful nan AP poll, past was smashed by Minnesota earlier sidestepping into nan Rose Bowl via antiquated tiebreaker rules, whereupon nan Hoosiers mislaid to USC. That’s it.

(While each play is chopped unto itself, Indiana’s existent steamroll to 9–0 makes nan petty complaining from SEC state past twelvemonth look moreover worse. It was incorrect then, and pinch nan thief of hindsight, much incorrect now.)

Texas A&M (30) leads nan SEC. Like nan others above, nan Aggies person ne'er made nan playoff. While this is simply a logical spot for a programme of A&M’s resources to be, it hasn’t won a nationalist title since nan 1930s.

When nan first playoff rankings are unveiled Tuesday night, don’t beryllium amazed to spot half nan bracket populated by teams that person ne'er made nan CFP. In summation to nan Cavaliers, Cougars and Aggies, Mississippi is simply a fastener to beryllium successful nan apical 12 and Texas Tech should beryllium arsenic well. The Group of 6 bid seems to beryllium successful nan American’s control, which would put different caller squad successful nan playoff.

This benignant of turnover astatine (or near) nan apical looks for illustration nan caller normal. Which intends winning everlastingly is little of a given.

College shot remains a zero-sum game. In nan 18-team Big Ten, location will beryllium 162 wins and 162 losses successful convention play this season; successful nan Big 12 nan wide grounds will beryllium 144–144; successful nan ACC it’s 136–136 (until they get funky pinch a nine-game schedule and 17 teams adjacent year); and successful nan SEC it’s 128–128. There will beryllium winners, but location besides will beryllium losers.

When an Indiana aliases a Vanderbilt rises up, a Wisconsin aliases an Auburn gets shoved down. When nan full authorities of Florida goes missing from nan playoff from 2015 to ’24 (and possibly ’25), nan Lone Star State is opinionated by to declare bids by Texas (twice), TCU, SMU and now possibly Texas Tech.

Everyone tin state that “football must succeed” and dump tens of millions of dollars into nan pursuit of that—often irresponsibly—but not everyone gets nan desired return connected investment. The occasional disappointments summation nan unit from fans, who are progressively asked to money nan empire building. It’s undoubtedly a facet successful nan accelerated coaching churn discussed successful nan Dash Second Quarter.

Brian Kelly won 71% of his games astatine LSU and it wasn’t bully enough—he couldn’t get nan Tigers successful nan playoffs. But earlier his arrival, LSU made it only 1 time, successful 2019. That juggernaut squad won nan nationalist title successful a blip of brilliance that was preceded by a 10–3 play and followed by a 5–5 one. It wasn’t connected autopilot successful Baton Rouge.

Make nan playoff each year? It sounds good, but it’s not realistic. Anywhere.

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