How Tennessee Vs. Oklahoma Impacts Both Teams’ College Football Playoff Chances

Josh Heupel has established himself arsenic 1 of nan SEC’s astir accordant coaches, turning astir a Tennessee programme that hadn’t been connected coagulated footing since Phillip Fulmer led nan programme from 1993 to 2008. Heupel, who made nan jump to nan SEC, didn’t look for illustration a clear fantabulous prosecute aft being brought successful from UCF, but now he is indispensable successful Knoxville. Rewind a decade, and Heupel looked for illustration he could beryllium nan coach of nan early for a different powerhouse program: his alma mater Oklahoma.

The erstwhile Walter Camp Award victor and All-American backmost entered coaching astatine his alma mater arsenic a postgraduate adjunct successful 2004, and 2 years later became nan Sooners’ quarterbacks coach, earning co-offensive coordinator duties nether Bob Stoops successful 2011. After a disappointing 2014 season, Stoops opted not to renew Heupel’s deal, hiring ECU violative coordinator Lincoln Riley to switch him. That determination yet impacted nan futures of a number of apical programs, and has created thing of a quiet rivalry betwixt Oklahoma and Tennessee, SEC foes since past year.

Heupel sewage revenge complete his alma mater successful 2024, beating Brent Venables and nan Sooners 25–15 en way to a College Football Playoff quality for nan Volunteers. This year’s matchup pits a brace of 6–2 (2–2) programs pinch playoff aspirations. Tennessee could usage a brand-name win, while Oklahoma is hoping to enactment afloat up of nan astir sadistic end-of-season decorativeness successful nan SEC.

Here’s really nan Vols and Sooners stack up ahead of Saturday’s crippled successful Knoxville, and really nan game’s consequence will effect nan CFP race. Spoiler alert: this could beryllium a de facto elimination crippled for nan loser.

Tennessee has nan SEC’s champion offense, per ESPN’s SP+ metric, classed No. 2 successful nan country. Joey Aguilar has proven to beryllium an effective triggerman for Josh Heupel’s wide-open system, though nan Volunteers are conscionable arsenic beardown connected nan ground. Tennessee has 1,510 yards and 23 touchdowns and mean 5 yards per transportation arsenic a team, pinch DeSean Bishop (91 carries, 652 yards, 9 touchdowns) and Star Thomas (75/418/5) starring nan measurement for a backfield that has efficaciously replaced Dylan Sampson successful nan aggregate. They’ll contend pinch nan SEC’s second-ranked defense (and nan nation's No. 4 unit, per SP+) successful Oklahoma, which has been beautiful ascendant astir weeks. Power convention opponents are averaging conscionable 18.8 points and 306 yards per crippled against nan Sooners; only Ole Miss has topped 23 points aliases 302 yards of that group (both of which came from Texas).

OU’s discourtesy is an unfastened question, arsenic backmost John Mateer—an early-season Heisman favorite—has not been nan aforesaid subordinate since his speedy return from manus surgery. Mateer had 1,215 passing yards pinch six passing touchdowns, on pinch 190 rushing yards and 5 scores. Since nan nonaccomplishment to Texas—his first backmost aft surgery—Mateer has 575 passing yards pinch 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions and hasn’t been a facet connected nan ground, a existent interest arsenic OU’s moving backs person struggled to nutrient and nan squad averages little than 4 yards per carry.

If Mateer and Oklahoma are primed for a breakout, Tennessee’s defense whitethorn supply nan runway. The Vols are coming disconnected of a crippled successful which they allowed 34 points and 476 yards to 1 of nan SEC’s worst offenses, Kentucky, by acold nan Wildcats’ apical output against a Power 4 force this season.

If Tennessee wins...

... nan Vols will adhd their champion triumph of nan twelvemonth truthful acold to nan résumé. Tennessee’s play opener against Syracuse hasn’t aged peculiarly good owed to wounded issues decimating nan Orange complete nan past fewer weeks, and tight wins complete Mississippi State and Arkansas, while reasonable fixed really competitory those programs person been, won’t ray nan world connected fire.

That makes nan remaining 4 games highly important. A 10–2 grounds pinch coagulated wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt would apt beryllium capable to get nan Vols a return travel to nan CFP, moreover though they avoided nan gauntlet schedules that different programs for illustration nan Sooners will person faced by season’s end.

Tennessee’s 2025 shot schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.

The business for some teams is very similar—at 10–2 coming retired of nan SEC, they person a bully shot. Go 9–3, and location whitethorn not beryllium abstraction disposable for an at-large, which we encountered past year. The large quality is that, dissimilar Tennessee, Oklahoma whitethorn person nan astir difficult end-of-year schedule successful nan country. The Sooners travel their travel to Knoxville pinch a bye, and past caput to Tuscaloosa to look red-hot Alabama, earlier location games against different squad that could beryllium hoping to enactment successful nan CFP mix—Missouri—and decorativeness astatine location against a talented LSU squad that could beryllium motivated for what will almost surely beryllium its last crippled nether interim coach Frank Wilson.

Buckle up, OU.

Oklahoma’s 2025 shot schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.

Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Tennessee, Oklahoma

Pat Forde has some programs connected nan outside looking successful of his existent playoff projections. Oklahoma is included successful his database of teams that could person nan most important effect connected nan playoff race going forward, though, pinch 3 of their 4 remaining games coming against different CFP hopefuls.

Bryan Fischer besides doesn’t person either Tennessee aliases Oklahoma successful his live bracket aft Week 9, aliases his forward-looking projection. He presently projects nan Volunteers to nan Gator Bowl against Louisville, and nan Sooners to a Texas Bowl day pinch Cincinnati, some of which return spot connected Dec. 27.

More College Football connected Sports Illustrated

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