Road To 272 Bets: Nfl Week 10 Picks For Every Game

Sometimes taking underdogs connected nan moneyline alternatively of nan dispersed tin travel backmost to haunt you, arsenic was nan lawsuit pinch some my upset picks successful nan Week 9 version of nan Road to 272 Bets. My 2 upset picks, nan Falcons and nan Raiders, mislaid by a azygous constituent owed to a missed other constituent and a missed two-point conversion. Because I took them connected nan moneyline, those bets went 0-2 alternatively of going 2-0, which they would've been had I conscionable stake them connected nan spread.

That is 1 of nan galore things that went incorrect for maine past week, which led to 1 of my worst performances successful nan history of nan Road to 272 Bets. The conclusion of Week 9 marks nan halfway constituent of nan NFL season, truthful let's brushwood ourselves disconnected and effort to rebound pinch a beardown Week 10.

Road to 272 Bets Week 8 Record

Road to 272 Bets Season-to-Date Record

Raiders vs. Broncos Prediction

The Las Vegas Raiders' discourtesy has been abysmal this season. They rank 30th successful nan convention successful violative DVOA, up of only nan Titans and Browns, and now they person to deed nan roadworthy to return connected arguably nan champion defense successful nan NFL. The Broncos rank 4th successful force EPA per Play and first successful force occurrence rate. It's difficult to ideate nan Raiders being capable to people capable points to screen this spread.

It's besides worthy noting really overmuch amended nan Broncos person been astatine location this season, ranking 3rd successful Net Yards per Play connected their location section astatine (+1.6). That should beryllium capable to overwhelm nan Raiders.

Pick: Broncos -9 (-110) via BetMGM

Falcons vs. Colts Prediction

The Falcons proceed to suffer games, and I envision them imploding arsenic nan play goes connected and nan players proceed to suffer religion successful nan coaching unit that has led them astray pinch mediocre crippled plans and play calling.

This is besides a awesome clip to bargain backmost successful connected nan Colts aft their baffling Week 9 nonaccomplishment to nan Steelers. Indianapolis's level of play didn't regress successful that game, but it was intolerable to flooded six turnovers. Turnovers thin to beryllium a adaptable that will popular up from clip to clip for bully teams, but apt won't beryllium a long-lasting issue.

Indianapolis still ranks 3rd successful Net Yards per Play (+1.2), 3rd successful DVOA, first successful EPA per play, and 2nd successful Success Rate. Meanwhile, nan Falcons person regressed, particularly defensively, arsenic nan play goes on, and their mediocre violative playcalling will support them from being capable to support gait pinch nan Colts.

Finally, nan Falcons' 29th ranking successful force unreserved occurrence complaint is going to travel backmost to haunt them against Jonathan Taylor and Co.

Pick: Colts -5.5 (+100)

Bills vs. Dolphins Prediction

The Dolphins' Week 8 triumph against nan Falcons is looking for illustration a blip connected nan radar aft their embarrassing conclusion astatine nan hands of nan Baltimore Ravens successful Week 9. The Dolphins person fewer redeeming qualities, including ranking adjacent nan bottommost successful each metric connected some sides of nan ball. Overall, they're 29th successful Net Yards per Play astatine -0.7.

Meanwhile, nan Bills person seemingly fixed their protect issues complete nan BYE week and are now coming disconnected awesome wins against some nan Panthers and nan Bills. Their discourtesy continues to roll, but if their defense tin unopen down Mahomes and nan remainder of nan Chiefs, nan Dolphins shouldn't beryllium overmuch of an rumor for them.

Pick: Bills -9.5 (-108) via DraftKings

Giants vs. Bears Prediction

My upset prime of nan week is for nan New York Giants to return down nan Chicago Bears. The Bears proceed to find ways to triumph games against bad teams, but their mean scoring separator of -1.5 shows that they whitethorn not beryllium arsenic bully arsenic their grounds shows. If you're a believer successful nan precocious metric called DVOA, you'd beryllium willing to find retired that these 2 teams rank correct adjacent to each different astatine 22nd and 23rd.

At nan extremity of nan day, successful what is group arsenic a coin flip game, I person much religion successful Jaxson Dart, who has shown each nan signs of being a baller that tin resistance his squad to victories they whitethorn not merit otherwise. I can't opportunity nan aforesaid point astir Williams. Dart ranks 16th successful nan NFL successful Expected Points Added + Completion Percentage Over Expected, while Williams ranks conscionable 23rd.

Pick: Giants +164

Saints vs. Panthers Prediction

Don't fto their winning grounds and an upset triumph complete nan Packers person you that this Panthers squad is good. The underlying metrics still show that they're 1 of nan worst teams successful nan NFL. They rank 24th successful Net Yards per Play (-0.6), 25th successful DVOA, 23rd successful EPA per Play, and 20th successful force EPA per play. They person had things spell correct against inferior opponents and past faced a Packers squad that put guardant an F performance.

Now is nan cleanable clip to waste precocious connected nan Panthers arsenic they return connected a quiet Saints squad that is looking to present a triumph for their rookie quarterback, Tyler Shough, who looked coagulated successful his first profession commencement against 1 of nan champion defenses successful nan league. The Saints rank conscionable 1 spot down nan Panthers successful Net Yards per Play.

Pick: Saints +5.5 (-110) via BetMGM

Browns vs. Jets Prediction

In a toilet vessel of a crippled betwixt 2 unspeakable teams, I'm going to return nan broadside that's getting 2 points, particularly considering nan Browns' defense is nan only redeemable portion successful this game. The Browns' defense ranks sixth successful DVOA, 5th successful force EPA, and 3rd successful force occurrence rate. Every different portion successful this crippled is simply a bottom-10 portion successful nan league, truthful let's trust connected nan Browns' defense to support this crippled close.

Pick: Browns +2 (-110) via BetMGM

Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction

I'm going to proceed to slice nan Jacksonville Jaguars, who aren't astir arsenic bully arsenic their grounds indicates, chiefly because of nan mediocre play of Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence ranks 32nd amongst starting quarterbacks this play successful EPA + CPOE Composite, pinch only Cam Ward and Dillon Gabriel ranking worse.

The Texans' adjacent outrank nan Jaguars successful virtually each precocious metric. Houston is ninth successful wide DVOA compared to nan Jaguars astatine 17th. The Texans' defense is besides 1 of nan champion successful nan league, ranking 2nd successful some force EPA per Play and force occurrence rate. With Houston group arsenic conscionable a 1.5-point favourite astatine home, that tells america nan betting marketplace would person this arsenic a coin flip crippled connected a neutral field, and I simply don't work together pinch that evaluation.

Pick: Texans -1.5 (-105) via FanDuel

Patriots vs. Buccaneers Prediction

The New England Patriots proceed to look for illustration 1 of nan champion OVER teams successful nan NFL. They're 11th successful nan convention successful violative DVOA but 25th successful protect DVOA. Their discourtesy is besides seventh successful nan convention successful EPA per play, and Drake Maye ranks 2nd amongst each starting quarterbacks successful EPA+CPOE composite.

The Buccaneers' discourtesy hasn't been arsenic bully arsenic they were astatine nan commencement of nan year, but a batch of that has been owed to injuries. Now, coming disconnected their BYE week, they whitethorn get a fewer players backmost this week, and moreover if they don't, Baker Mayfield will find a measurement to move nan shot against this New England defense.

Give maine nan OVER successful this interconference matchup.

Pick: OVER 48.5 (-106) via Caesars

Ravens vs. Vikings Prediction

The Baltimore Ravens look to yet beryllium playing astatine nan level that everyone expected them to beryllium playing astatine coming into this season. It was a disastrous commencement to their 2025 campaign, but aft a Week 7 BYE that allowed them to reset and get healthy, nan Ravens person now strung together 2 consecutive wins by a mixed people of 58-22. Not only did Lamar Jackson look arsenic businesslike arsenic ever past Thursday night, but nan Ravens' defense has looked arsenic bully arsenic they person each season.

J.J. McCarthy did capable to get nan triumph against nan Lions past weekend, but completing 56% of passes for 143 yards isn't capable for maine to beryllium convinced that he's going to lead nan Vikings connected a triumph streak now. It's clip to bargain successful connected nan Ravens.

Pick: Ravens -3.5 (-105) via DraftKings

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Prediction

People are starting to drawback connected to really bully this Seattle Seahawks squad is, but I still deliberation there's immoderate worth betting connected them astatine their existent value constituent successful nan betting market. The Seahawks are nan No. 1-ranked squad successful nan NFL according to DVOA, ranking 4th offensively, 2nd defensively, and first successful typical teams. They besides lead nan convention successful Net Yards per Play astatine +1.6.

Despite each of that, nan betting marketplace has them evaluated arsenic a "good but not great" team. They merit to beryllium bigger favorites against a Cardinals squad that's bottommost 10 successful nan convention successful astir metrics,

Pick: Seahawks -7 (-105)

Lions vs. Commanders Prediction

I'm amazed nan full is successful nan 50s betwixt nan Lions and Commanders. The Washington discourtesy isn't going to beryllium nan aforesaid pinch Marcus Mariota astatine quarterback, and nan Lions' defense is 1 of nan astir underrated units successful nan league. When you deliberation of nan Lions, you deliberation of offense, but their defense ranks seventh successful force occurrence rate, sixth successful force EPA per play, and 4th successful protect DVOA.

Unless nan Lions move things connected offensively, I'm consenting to stake connected this being a lower-scoring crippled than group expect. The full is simply a mates of points excessively high, I'll stake nan UNDER.

Pick: UNDER 50.5 (-110) via DraftKings

Rams vs. 49ers Prediction

I'm debased connected nan San Francisco 49ers. Last year, thing could spell correct for them successful their games, but this twelvemonth it's been nan complete opposite. They proceed to triumph games contempt ranking 15th successful Net Yards per Play astatine -0.1, 15th successful DVOA, 15th successful EPA per play, and 22nd successful force EPA per play. Mac Jones is looking for illustration he's going to beryllium nan starter moving forward, but he ranks conscionable 15th successful EPA+CPOE.

Meanwhile, nan Rams are arguably nan champion squad successful nan convention by galore metrics. They're 2nd successful full DVOA, coming successful astatine 3rd successful violative DVOA and 5th successful protect DVOA. They are besides nan only squad successful nan convention that ranks wrong nan apical six successful some EPA per play and force EPA per play. If those numbers clasp up, there's a chance they cruise past this 49ers team.

Pick: Rams -3.5 (-105)

Steelers vs. Chargers Prediction

The Los Angeles Chargers person a existent problem up of them pinch Joe Alt joining Rashawn Slater connected nan IR. Now, they're without their 2 starting violative tackles, which is unspeakable news for nan team, which is already allowing nan highest unit complaint per dropback astatine 26.5%. Now, they person to return connected 1 of nan champion walk rushes successful nan NFL. The Steelers, spearheaded by T.J. Watt, person a unit complaint of 22.7% while sporting nan 3rd astir sacks successful nan convention this play pinch 27.

If nan Steelers tin create unit connected Justin Herbert, which each signs constituent to them being capable to do so, this crippled is going to beryllium a adjacent 1 connected Sunday Night Football.

It's besides worthy noting that nan Chargers' defense has regressed ever since nan beardown commencement to nan season. They rank 17th successful protect DVOA while allowing 5.2 yards per play.

Pick: Steelers +3 (-110) via BetMGM

Eagles vs. Packers Prediction

Both offenses successful this crippled are amended than their defenses, yet nan full successful this crippled is group successful nan mid-40s astatine 44.5. The Packers rank 3rd successful EPA per play, 3rd successful occurrence rate, and sixth successful violative DVOA. Defensively, they rank 15th, 13th, and eighth successful those 3 metrics.

The Eagles are successful akin form, ranking eighth, 15th, and seventh successful EPA, occurrence rate, and violative DVOA, but travel successful astatine 16th, 15th, and 18th successful nan protect type of those statistics. If some offenses travel to play connected Monday night, there's a chance nan full soars OVER nan existent number of 44.5.

Pick: OVER 44.5 (-108) via FanDuel

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