What To Watch As The College Football Playoff Selection Committee Rankings Debut

We’ve made it. 

It’s officially crunch clip successful nan title to make nan College Football Playoff and now we deed different mile-marker connected nan roadworthy to crowning a nationalist champion arsenic we commencement getting immoderate penetration arsenic to what nan action committee is reasoning astir teams, conferences and résumés pinch its first Top 25 released connected Tuesday. 

While it’s ever bully to effort to parse retired conscionable what nan committee values astatine this constituent successful nan season, it’s peculiarly of statement aft a wild Week 10 saw respective imaginable playoff teams return unexpected losses and a fistful of convention contenders saw their way to nan first play successful December change, while nan at-large image continues to look muddled moreover much truthful than past season.

So, what is apical of mind for nan committee? Here are 5 cardinal questions going into Tuesday’s show. 

Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has been vocal since nan summertime astir getting aggregate playoff bids for his convention aft nan ACC snuck some SMU and Clemson into nan section successful 2024. That’s unsurprising optimism coming retired of nan convention office, but it won’t beryllium arsenic elemental arsenic wishing it to beryllium nan lawsuit fixed really jumbled nan CFP image is for some conferences.

Right now, it’s astir apt a safe presumption to deliberation that undefeated BYU and one-loss Texas Tech will beryllium wrong nan apical 12 travel Tuesday. But nan Big 12’s expertise to spot some (or different squad from nan league) will apt travel down to which different programs mightiness beryllium successful nan committee’s Top 25 arsenic a measurement to springiness nan convention further victories complete classed teams. For example, Utah being classed wrong nan apical 15—they’re No. 17 successful nan AP canvass this week—could beryllium awesome news for nan Big 12 and it will decidedly thief if Cincinnati is classed fixed that nan Bearcats big nan Cougars later this month.

As for nan ACC, they’re successful a akin predicament of trying to stack nan Top 25 pinch arsenic galore convention teams arsenic imaginable truthful they tin slot successful 2 and debar having only nan automatic bid successful nan bracket. Pay peculiar attraction to what nan committee thinks of Georgia Tech aft nan Yellow Jackets suffered their first loss, really precocious Virginia is aft respective adjacent calls and if Louisville is simply a threat. Then there’s Miami, which apt needs to beryllium nan apical two-loss squad if it wants to consciousness amended astir its chances of earning an at-large bid fixed really difficult it will beryllium to get to nan ACC title game.

It could besides beryllium instructive to spot if nan committee ranks either (or both) SMU and Duke fixed they are live successful nan ACC title title contempt their wide records.

2. What’s nan SEC pecking bid of contenders?

It’s beautiful easy to spot Texas A&M and Alabama successful a people of their ain successful nan SEC, but really does nan committee position nan slew of different contenders who are besides firmly successful nan operation of nan playoff discussion? Georgia has been surviving immoderate adjacent calls nan past fewer weeks. You wonderment if nan Bulldogs could beryllium a touch little than nan No. 5 spot they are successful some polls. Mississippi would people beryllium down nan Bulldogs, but not by much, and past it’s anybody’s conjecture arsenic to really things shingle retired from there. 

Georgia moving backmost Chauncey Bowens scores a touchdown against Florida. / Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Each of nan two-loss teams has its flaws and mostly they are utilizing each different to prop themselves up arsenic value wins fixed nan deficiency of marquee nonconference victories. Could Oklahoma beryllium acold capable successful beforehand of Texas that their head-to-head consequence doesn’t matter aliases will nan committee dainty that crippled otherwise fixed that John Mateer was making his first commencement since manus surgery? And really astir Vanderbilt and Missouri, who some person 2 losses, including 1 they stock against Alabama.

Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti seems preoccupied pinch trying to grow nan playoff because, arsenic it stands, location are 2 locks to make nan bracket successful Ohio State and Indiana, positive conscionable 1 apt subordinate successful Oregon. That doesn’t precisely shriek a Power 2 convention pinch truthful fewer teams progressive successful nan nationalist title picture, and it will beryllium absorbing to spot really nan committee evaluates nan remainder of nan conference. 

Could USC, arsenic 1 example, beryllium classed highly capable to genuinely person a changeable astatine making nan apical 12 if they triumph retired arsenic a 10–2 squad (while besides not knocking retired nan Ducks successful nan process)? 

Washington could besides beryllium to beryllium a captious sanction to find successful nan Top 25 for nan Big Ten fixed that it has Oregon coming to Montlake to extremity nan season—a imaginable playoff play-in only if nan Huskies are treated pinch respect by nan committee. 

4. Is location a statement complete nan bid of nan apical four?

We’ve coalesced astir Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Alabama being nan apical 4 successful nan polls nan past fewer weeks, but it’s imaginable nan committee views things otherwise erstwhile they stack nan group together. 

The Buckeyes, contempt their dominance, person only 1 value triumph complete a apical force successful Texas and person to dream there’s a 2nd pinch nan inclusion of Washington location successful nan rankings. Their wins don’t travel adjacent to what Indiana has done, which is spell connected nan roadworthy to listen Oregon and person a amended triumph against a communal force successful Illinois. Switching nan 2 programs wouldn’t beryllium absurd if résumé winds up being a bigger facet than we assume.

Ohio State backmost Julian Sayin looks to make a walk against Penn State. / Samantha Madar/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The aforesaid is existent successful nan SEC, arsenic Texas A&M remains undefeated and has that large triumph complete Notre Dame … but don’t person nan breadth of Top 25 wins for illustration nan Crimson Tide do. Alabama’s nonaccomplishment to Florida State won’t beryllium forgotten—and it seemingly gets worse pinch each passing Saturday—but they person much than made up for it pinch victories complete Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee. If location are immoderate tweaks to nan order, it will beryllium notable what action committee chair Mack Rhoades says astir nan chat successful nan room regarding nan apical four.

Usually, we don’t really get a bully consciousness astir which Group of 5 teams nan committee likes watching until nan very past minute. That whitethorn not beryllium nan lawsuit successful 2025 arsenic you could truthfully spot immoderate of Memphis, USF, Navy, North Texas, San Diego State aliases James Madison find its measurement into nan bottommost of nan rankings. 

Part of that is simply nan glut of intimately matched power-conference programs pinch 2 aliases 3 losses, but it besides speaks to really good each person played. It’s a safe presumption that nan American, fixed its large wins successful nonconference, is nan favourite to nonstop its champion to nan playoff, but nan committee could still worth a squad for illustration nan Aztecs for really ascendant they’ve been nan past period aliases really bully nan Dukes person shown they are—their lone, adjacent nonaccomplishment will apt beryllium to a classed squad connected nan roadworthy successful Louisville. 

Perhaps it won’t matter and they’ll propulsion successful Tennessee, LSU, Houston, TCU and others arsenic filler betwixt spots 20 and 25 instead, but location mightiness beryllium immoderate existent splitting of hairs amid a beardown Group of 5 contingent.

Now that we’ve posed those questions going into Tuesday’s reveal, here’s what I task nan committee will do pinch its first Top 25 and what nan bracket could look like.  

Projected College Football Playoff Bracket

First Round 

Quarterfinals

1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Alabama
4. Texas A&M
5. Georgia
6. Ole Miss
7. Oregon
8. Texas Tech
9. BYU
10. Notre Dame
11. Texas
12. Oklahoma
13. Vanderbilt
14. Georgia Tech
15. Virginia
16. Louisville
17. Miami
18. USC
19. Michigan
20. Utah
21. Memphis
22. Missouri
23. Washington
24. Cincinnati
25. Tennessee 

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