Why Dave Canales Has Been The Coach Of The Year Through 13 Weeks

If you’re looking to wager connected NFL Coach of nan Year, you person to hold until nan page loads much options earlier Panthers coach Dave Canales’s sanction comes up. And while it’s existent that this is simply a uniquely crowded section and that nan existent favorite—Mike Vrabel—has a squad that won 4 games past play astatine 10–2, barreling toward a first-round bye successful nan playoffs, and Ben Johnson has nan Bears sitting arsenic nan NFC’s existent No. 1 seed aft an outright illness a twelvemonth ago, I deliberation galore are discounting nan totality of what has occurred successful Carolina. 

This is particularly existent if nan Panthers, 7–6 aft Sunday’s 31–28 triumph complete nan Rams, scope nan postseason. Carolina has likelihood somewhat amended than 30% (through nan early model Sunday), though nan squad has 1 of nan much difficult force spot of schedules from present out, pinch some Buccaneers games remaining and a day pinch nan Seahawks. Given that nan Panthers and Buccaneers are tied pinch 7 wins apiece and Tampa Bay is intelligibly struggling, I would task to opportunity that nan existent likelihood connected Carolina’s postseason bid are a spot conservative. 

It cannot beryllium discounted that, successful 2 consecutive weeks, nan Panthers person forced 3 turnovers each against teams coached by Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. The Panthers person logged wins complete some nan Packers (Week 9) and now nan Rams. And while location are weeks erstwhile this squad tin revert into nan antecedently established communicative type of itself—a blowout nonaccomplishment to nan Bills and a 10-point nonaccomplishment to nan Saints travel to mind—I deliberation it’s worthy making nan lawsuit that what Canales and his unit are doing is possibly nan astir awesome occupation successful nan league. 

For example, pinch immoderate of nan different coaches successful beforehand of Canales, specified arsenic nan Seahawks’ Mike Macdonald and Colts’ Shane Steichen, you tin pinpoint a ample portion of nan team’s emergence to captious coordinator changes successful nan offseason. The Colts went from being 14th successful EPA to an undisputed top-10 unit. While not ignoring nan team’s uncanny violative efficiency, nan Colts are 1 bully crippled distant from tying nan number of backmost hits they had each of past season. The Seahawks, successful addition, went from nan 10th-best defense (Macdonald’s area of expertise) and nan 18th-best offense, to a top-10 discourtesy that has group a modular for deep-shot, game-altering plays, and nan fifth-best defense. Certainly, Steichen’s handling of Daniel Jones and scrapping nan Anthony Richardson discourtesy are fantabulous achievements attributed to nan play-calling, former-quarterback caput coach. But nan Colts person mislaid 3 of four, looking fishy against nan toothier information of their schedule.  

Vrabel, while undoubtedly fantastic, has frankincense acold played a schedule pinch a mixed spot of schedule nether .400. And while New England has performed good against nan top-tier title it has faced to this point, we’re flimsily building that lawsuit connected a triumph complete nan painfully inconsistent Bills. I don’t cognize if we tin say, pinch immoderate grade of certainty, really New England would execute successful a second-round playoff matchup  

With Johnson, location was an offseason unit overhaul, particularly connected nan violative line. The caller players—Jonah Jackson, Drew Dalman and Joe Thuney—have each played betwixt 97% and 100% of nan team’s violative snaps this season. Caleb Williams, while uneven during his first twelvemonth nether Matt Eberflus, is an undeniably talented backmost pinch nan imaginable to go a perennial top-five subordinate successful nan NFL. While we perfectly cannot discount Johnson’s brilliant arsenic a play-caller, Chicago ranks very highly successful galore of nan NFL’s luck-adjacent metrics, specified arsenic fumble betterment percent and third-down conversions complete anticipation (stunningly, nan Bears person faced much 3rd downs this play than immoderate squad isolated from for nan Giants). Six of nan team’s 9 wins person been one-score victories. 

Juxtapose this pinch Carolina, a squad that won 5 games past twelvemonth erstwhile Canales first took over, aft a two-win play that preceded Canales that was arguably 1 of nan astir ill-conceived blends of a mismatched coaching staff, overzealous unit section and over-involved ownership successful NFL history. 

Carolina’s large free-agent summation connected discourtesy was a one-year, $3 cardinal statement handed to Rico Dowdle. This season, Carolina has a bottom-third fumble betterment percent and 1 of nan worst reddish area touchdown percentages successful nan NFL. Outside of nan increasing threat posed by first-round wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, nan Panthers person been almost singularly limited connected a moving crippled pinch a top-10 ratio complaint and … not overmuch else. The Panthers’ defense, while buoyed by a fistful of Band-Aid free agents and a resurgent run from Derrick Brown, moved from dormant past successful EPA—and 1 of nan worst defenses successful caller NFL history—to 24th. 

While we tin utilize these numbers to opportunity immoderate we want—statistics are nan grist for manipulation—I spot an extraordinarily hard-capped roster pinch almost each of its “star” powerfulness connected nan protect broadside of nan shot grinding retired wins connected nan shoulders of a journeyman moving back. This is different from an discourtesy that, say, already had Jonathan Taylor uncovering its footing pinch nan summation of a erstwhile first-round prime astatine quarterback. This is different from a squad that already possessed an ascending prima backmost (Drake Maye) adding a top-five prime astatine near tackle, a multi-time Pro Bowl wide receiver and a caller violative coordinator to nan fold. 

This, you’ll find, aft watching nan aforesaid Young whom galore person fixed up connected clip and clip again, throwing picture-perfect balls successful a diving rainfall connected captious 3rd and 4th downs against nan champion defense successful football, is different from almost anything we’re seeing successful nan NFL. 

And that is why we should see a coach talented capable to orchestrate it befitting of an award. 

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