World Series Roundtable: Expert Predictions, Mvp Picks, X-factors

The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers opened this play pinch very different projections—truth beryllium told, we picked Toronto to finish past successful nan AL East—and yet present we are pinch nan Jays group to big nan defending champion Dodgers to commencement nan 2025 World Series.

Despite nan Jays proving nan doubters incorrect and earning nan American League’s No. 1 seed, while nan Dodgers ne'er genuinely kicked into 2nd cogwheel during nan regular play en way to nan NL’s No. 3 seed, Los Angeles is heavy favored to triumph a 2nd consecutive title. The Dodgers marched done their broadside of nan bracket pinch a 9–1 record, including a expanse complete nan Brewers successful nan NLCS, while nan Blue Jays had to triumph 2 elimination games against nan Mariners successful nan ALCS to return to nan Fall Classic for nan first clip since 1993.

Can nan Jays support defying expectations aliases will nan Dodgers go MLB’s first repetition champions since 2000? Below our unit makes our World Series picks, identifies x-factors and more.

Tom Verducci: Starting pitching. The Dodgers constricted nan Brewers to a .118 mean successful nan NLCS, nan lowest of immoderate bid of astatine slightest 3 games. They person a ton of swing-and-miss stuff, particularly curveballs and changeups. The other remainder is moreover much adjuvant for max-effort pitchers this clip of year. Please spare maine nan talk of rust. It is truthful overrated successful today’s game.

Stephanie Apstein: Can nan Dodgers’ bullpen clasp on? This season, nan squad sewage 3.2 WAR (ninth successful baseball) from its starting pitchers. From nan bullpen it sewage -6.4 WAR, second-worst. That disparity has been magnified this postseason, arsenic L.A. starters person a 1.40 ERA and L.A. relievers have a 4.88. Roki Sasaki’s emergence has plugged a awesome hole, but astatine immoderate point, different reliever is going to person to get immoderate outs.

Roki Sasaki has been a reliable force, but nan Dodgers will request their starters to proceed their power and different members of nan bullpen to measurement up. / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Nick Selbe: If nan Dodgers’ starting pitchers replicate what they did successful nan NLCS, this will beryllium a short series. But if that group is simply very bully alternatively than excellent, past Dave Roberts will request much than conscionable 1 alleviation pitcher (Roki Sasaki) he trusts successful high-leverage spots. For that reason, I’ll opportunity 1 of Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen aliases Anthony Banda is nan biggest x-factor for Los Angeles.

Will Laws: The bullpen beyond Roki Sasaki—especially now that apical lefty Alex Vesia is away from nan team to woody pinch a individual matter. Blake Treinen and Emmet Sheehan person mixed to springiness up 5 runs connected 11 hits and 4 walks successful 7 postseason innings. Anthony Banda and Jack Dreyer whitethorn person to measurement up successful higher-leverage situations than they typically transportation in.

2. What's nan biggest x-factor for nan Blue Jays to win?

TV: Staying distant from pursuit swings and hammering pitches erstwhile nan Dodgers do travel into nan zone. Quality at-bats is their forte. The azygous astir important matchup is nan pitching unit pinch nan second-lowest strikeout complaint successful MLB (and it’s up successful nan postseason) against nan hitting group pinch nan lowest strikeout complaint successful baseball. The Jays won nan ALCS because they put nan shot successful play and turned complete nan lineup acold amended than Seattle. If they tin do that here, they tin deterioration down nan Dodgers’ starters and person a way to victory, particularly because Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage person nan worldly to unopen down nan Dodgers.

SA: Can they get Shohei Ohtani out? Before Game 4 of nan NLCS, postseason opponents had done a reasonable occupation of that, mostly by throwing lefties astatine him and making judge he almost never saw a reliever twice. But each the Blue Jays’ starters and each their champion relievers are right-handed. It will beryllium absorbing to spot if they tin keep him quiet. 

Kevin Gausman and nan remainder of nan Blue Jays’ unit will person their activity trim retired for them against nan heavy Dodgers’ lineup. / Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

NS: The Blue Jays sewage phenomenal accumulation from nan bottommost 3rd of their lineup during their ALCS triumph complete Seattle. If guys for illustration Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez and Addison Barger tin enactment hot, past Toronto will airs a overmuch bigger threat to this Dodgers pitching unit than Milwaukee did.

WL: Perhaps an evident one, but I’ll spell pinch Bo Bichette. If he tin negociate to return from his injured knee and play 2nd base successful spot of Isiah-Kiner Falefa, who’s been nan closest point to an automatic retired successful Toronto’s postseason lineup, nan Jays’ lineup—which classed 4th successful MLB successful wRC+ and runs scored—will beryllium adjacent to afloat strength.

TV: Blake Snell. The dude is connected an all-time awesome postseason run. He’s caller and he will beryllium making his 4th consecutive commencement connected astatine slightest 5 days of rest. He is leaning into his changeup overmuch much this postseason, which seems unfair for a feline who has hasn’t yielded a deed pinch his past 57 curveballs and is throwing harder than he has each year.

SA: Is Vladdy Guerrero a little evident pick? If nan Blue Jays win, it will beryllium because he did thing insane. Or respective somethings, much likely. And I deliberation there’s a bully chance of that. 

NS: In a Dodgers win, springiness maine Teoscar Hernández. The erstwhile Blue Jay tends to make his hits count, arsenic he has 2 game-tying aliases go-ahead homers this postseason. If nan Blue Jays propulsion disconnected nan upset, a down-ballot campaigner I for illustration is Addison Barger, who’s gotten basking astatine nan correct clip passim nan playoffs.

WL: Snell. Let’s opportunity nan Dodgers triumph successful five, giving him 2 opportunities to pitch, and he performs likewise to really he has successful his erstwhile 3 playoff starts (21 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 28 K). If Los Angeles’s violative accumulation is reasonably dispersed out, and/or Ohtani doesn’t prima arsenic a two-way player, nan all-time leader successful strikeout complaint (11.2 K/9) will beryllium successful bully position to declare MVP honors on pinch his first World Series ring.

Dodgers ace Blake Snell is having a historical playoff tally and could get nan opportunity to cement his all-time position pinch 2 starts successful nan World Series. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

4. Give a bold prediction for nan series. 

TV: The first squad to people 3 runs wins each game. Look for defense and baserunning to beryllium highlighted successful low-scoring, tight games.

SA: Ohtani has a amended crippled than he did successful Game 4 of nan NLCS. That’s beautiful bold, since it was nan greatest crippled successful nan history of this and most different sports. But he’ll get to look immoderate righties this bid and he seems to person sorted thing retired astatine nan plate. And because why not?

NS: Given really small religion nan wide baseball-viewing world seems to person successful nan Blue Jays, is it considered bold to opportunity this bid will past astatine slightest six games? The Dodgers person managed to get this acold without having to thin connected their shaky group of bullpen arms excessively much. I deliberation Toronto’s lineup is heavy capable to pursuit opposing starters earlier than nan Brewers were capable to, and will triumph astatine slightest a mates high-scoring games. 

WL: The Dodgers person averaged 2.8 runs allowed truthful acold successful these playoffs and person allowed a azygous tally successful each of their past 5 games. But I deliberation nan Blue Jays will people astatine slightest 3 runs successful each game: Los Angeles is debased connected left-handed pitchers astatine nan moment, and each of Toronto’s right-handed hitters are conscionable astir arsenic bully against same-handed pitchers arsenic they are against southpaws (absent Ernie Clement, who should only commencement against lefties). The Jays led nan convention successful batting mean (.266) and on-base percent (.332) against righties.

TV: Dodgers successful six.

SA: Dodgers successful six. I conscionable deliberation they're deeper, and their starting pitching is going to equilibrium retired that leaky bullpen. 

NS: Dodgers successful six.

WL: Dodgers successful five. At afloat spot and firing connected each cylinders, Los Angeles looks for illustration nan squad we each imagined earlier nan season.

More MLB connected Sports Illustrated